Premier week begins Monday, September 19. There are 20 new shows this fall. Last year, 11 of the 22 new shows were renewed. Now, I’m not going to say that there were some bad choices, but there were some really bad choices. Like FOX’s decision to keep Scream Queens over The Grinder and Grandfathered. Or even worse Code Black over Limitless.
I am projecting 11 of the 20 new shows gets renewed this season. This seems high, but it is the same number as last year.
Designated Survivor (75%) – Lots of buzz, Kiefer is a huge star and this show with the best-looking promo has little competition.
Lethal Weapon (65%) – Pairing this with Empire gives it a high probability of survival, despite the usual failure of movies-to-TV shows.
Notorious (65%) – Not for me, but airing on Shonda night means to extra eyeballs.
Speechless (60%) – Another show likely to survive because of timeslot, rather than quality.
American Housewife (60%) – A good leadoff (The Middle) and an entertaining trailer
This is Us (60%) – Lots of promotion and buzz surrounding the show. Either breakout hit or epic flop.
Great Indoors (55%) – A late premier, but paired with The Big Bang Theory
Kevin Can Wait (55%) – Paired with The Big Bang Theory, at least to start.
Son of Zorn (55%) – Man-boy comedy on Man-boy night
Bull (55%) – Michael Weatherly will pull people from NCIS, at least to start.
No Tomorrow (51%) – The CW’s renewal/cancellation decision are mysterious, but the trailer actually was funny.
Timeless (49%) – A premo timeslot gives this an excellent chance, but these types of shows never seem to survive.
Frequency (49%) – I honestly don’t know what it takes to get cancelled on The CW, but they have to cancel something, because they don’t have enough room for all their shows.
Pure Genius (45%) – Late premiers always struggle, not sure there’s enough here to overcome the late start.
MacGyver (45%) – Reboots, in general, struggle to survive.
Pitch (30%) – High competition, airing on a struggling network.
The Good Place (25%) – High competition and they are already mucking with its schedule.
Man with a Plan (20%) – Ex-Friends generally means flop.
Conviction (15%) – Little buzz about this legal-type drama
The Exorcist (5%) – Creepy, unsustainable premise
You’ll note that most of my predictions on renewal come because of their timeslot not quality. This might be a little cynical, but it hasn’t seemed to matter what shows air in some of these timeslots, they get good ratings. I am only projecting two shows to independently breakout – Designated Survivor and This is Us. Perhaps the big surprise is that I am projecting cancellation for Timeless – I’m actually looking forward to the show, but every time something innovative airs, it starts out on fire and hemorrhages viewers until there is no choice but to cancel it.